【加的少，加的长，但总量更高。】11/2 FED加息75BP，后续幅度缩小，预计12月50BP。但是目标利率可能不再止于4.6，可能更高5%？，美股崩。依赖数据。支出及生产小增，就业景气高，制造少服务多工资涨。

In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.

US 【ISM顶-CPI顶=6-9个月】，上一个22/3-4 => 22/9-23/1 CPI见顶

FED资产负债表扩张和货币供应量：2020.3  =》（贷款买）资产先大涨（股票、地产），其次商品及服务（CPI：1年），再次工资（资产出手期），该顺序延迟最有利于资本，最不利储蓄者及工薪阶层。

 股市：S&P 2020.3见底底，QE，2020.8恢复baseline，2021/12见顶

CPI底：2020.5 0.1%，QE，恢复 baseline 2021.3（或2021.4/5），继续升高，22.3资产负债表规模见顶，22.2利率开始走高。紧缩已经开始7-9个月，要等1年才开始影响通膨及生活价格。产品价格下降导致提前去库存及裁员。

In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

【美国房地产没有风险】？